Journal of the Virus Year: My experiences with the virus: March 23, 2020

This isn't the Coronavirus. It is a random virus pathogen. 

The developments in the last three or four days regarding the spreading Coronavirus COVID-19 have been extraordinary. For example, on March 20, 2020, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention listed the following figures:

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

The number from today's report from the Johns Hopkins University of Medicine, Coronavirus Resource Center shows the U.S. with 35,224 cases and 471 deaths, more than double the amount being reported by the CDC in less than three days.  If you are quoting or relying on data that is even part of a day old, you are likely vastly underestimating the impact of this pandemic considering the huge increases in the numbers of people infected that even with the vast under-reporting is running 30,000 a day and continually increasing.

After a week of "social distancing" and the resultant relative isolation that entails, our family has been increasingly relying on video conferencing software to mitigate the isolation. It has been interesting to me as I talk to people outside of our family, how many people believe that this worldwide pandemic with somehow spontaneously disappear in a week or two. For example, the school systems in the State of Utah, presently, has a "two-week" plan in place that is open-ended but begs the issue of the severity of the pandemic. Here is a quote from the Provo City School District that illustrates the issue.

As a district, we recognize that yesterday's announcement to dismiss school for the next two weeks has probably caused you to have many questions. While this email contains a lot of details, it will hopefully answer many of your questions and provide direction for next week. The district will continue to provide direction as needed throughout this coming week. This information will be emailed to all parents and posted on the district website, Facebook, Twitter and Instagram accounts. Please read the entire email for important information for next week.

At the other end of the spectrum, I am seeing irrational panic buying on a huge scale. In contrast, I have spent my whole life hearing about the need for a reasonable amount of food storage that includes other essential items. This is not a "prepper" mentality that believes that the world as we know it will imminently end. It is a reasonable concern that individual and family conditions can become difficult because of loss of work, illness, or local disaster conditions. My family has used our "year's supply" to tide us over periods when our income was not sufficient to maintain our family. Of course, this practice was promoted by our Church, The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, but the idea of preparedness is not unique to the Church. The current Church program on preparedness is focused on "Self Reliance." See Self-Reliance Services.

The unfortunate results of panic buying are that people acquire quantities of food and other items that they will never use and in some cases, do not know how to use. For example, for many years, the emphasis of the food storage program of the Church focused on basic foods such as wheat and other grains. This reflected the fact that many people had access to grain mills to make flour and could make their own bread. As time passed, this model of preparedness changed with the times. Presently, the idea of self-reliance focuses on individual skills and the food storage component is less focused on obtaining a "years supply" of anything. Here is a quote from the Church's statement on Food Storage.

What am I supposed to have in my food storage?
There are three main components of food storage:

• Food supply (three-month and long-term)
• Water supply
• Financial reserve

Store foods that are a part of your normal diet in your three-month supply. As you develop a longer-term storage, focus on food staples such as wheat, rice, pasta, oats, beans, and potatoes that can last 30 years or more. Learn more about a long-term food supply.

Longer-term food storage involves a dedicated pattern of rotation and constant use of the food items stored. See  “An Approach to Longer-Term Food Storage.”

You do not begin a food storage plan by running to the local store in a panic and buying large quantities of off-the-shelf food or other essentials. Before you go off half-cocked and start spending a chunk of money on food, you should realize that buying a large quantity of any one item does not solve the problem. Ask yourself this question: When was the last time I lived primarily on a diet of whole wheat? Food storage only works if you integrate your storage with your normal day-to-day living pattern. The second question I always have to ask when this topic comes up is do you have a wheat mill, that is, a machine to grind wheat. You can see wheat mills by searching online. Here is one "Buying Guide for Grain Mills." Back in the early 1970s, I was actually in the business of selling grain mills for a short time.

A disaster, such as the Coronavirus COVID-19, always reminds us that we need some level of preparation. However, once the crisis arrives the time for preparation is past and panic buying does not solve the issue. A pandemic proceeds over time. It is entirely unlike an earthquake or hurricane. It is not "over" in a matter of a few days or even a few weeks. Pandemics last months and years.

If you have somehow gotten the idea that this coronavirus is going to go away anytime soon, you need to sit down and plan for your short-term future and long term future in a realistic way that does not involve acquiring a mountain of toilet paper or bottled water,