Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Mexican Swine Flu information cannot be correct

The numbers in the stories coming out about the Swine Flu infections do not add up. Someone is not telling the truth. During the past few days the news accounts have repeated, including in today' s (April 29, 2009) news, that only 26 cases of Swine Flu have been confirmed in Mexico and "health officials there suspect the swine flu outbreak has caused more than 159 deaths and roughly 2,500 illnesses." CNN.

Mexico City, alone, has more than 20 million people. A recent estimate of the population of Mexico is 109,955,400. CIA World Factbook. The outbreak of the Swine Flu in the United States and other countries is being attributed to people who traveled to Mexico. We are collectively being expected to believe that a handful of international travelers, from the U.S., Spain, Canada, Israel and other countries all came in contact with that same 2,500 people somewhere in the middle of Mexico. It is inconceivable that the spread of the disease from Mexico could have been caused by such a small infected portion of the population.

Given the information presently available indicating the spread of the disease throughout the world, there is only one conclusion possible, the Mexican Government is not telling the whole story. The disease has to be much more extensive in the country than we are lead to believe.

Apparently, some of the countries of the world have come to the same conclusion. Japan and Indonesia and testing the temperature of people arriving from Mexico to detect the disease. They obviously do not believe that only 2,500 people have the disease.

Likewise, the reported number of people infected the U.S. is also suspect. If you read the news accounts carefully, you will see that the numbers are always portrayed as "confirmed" cases of the disease. Given the time it takes to confirm a case of flu, from personal experience, it is highly doubtful that the numbers are even nearly accurate.

There may be no need for concern, yet, but this is story that bears watching.

2 comments:

  1. I'm spreading the rumor that the Obama administration is spreading news stories about the Swine Flu in order to create another crisis that will require Congress to spend another trillion dollars.

    It could be true....

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  2. Mr Tanner there is some excellent material over at http://scienceblogs.com/effectmeasure/2009/04/swine_flu_pictures_big_and_lit.php#more

    "As is usual (routine? no, nothing routine about this) in an evolving epidemic contradictory and confusing numbers are appearing. Some of them are the result of information lags (tallies not being updated), some are the result of using different criteria for counting (suspect versus probable versus lab confirmed, etc.), some are just rumors."

    The recommendation there is to focus on the big picture rather than the numbers. Don't panic, but don't ignore it either.

    Besides, Euripides is probably right...:-)

    ReplyDelete